This is from Radio Netherlands:
Russia's refusal to set any date for ratifying the Kyoto protocol on greenhouse gas reductions any time soon has put the whole treaty in doubt. Producing 17 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, Moscow's signature is seen as crucial to the Kyoto protocol entering into force. Russian environmentalists are accusing their government of playing political games.
Those who thought that Vladimir Putin would use the international climate conference in Moscow as a platform to announce the long and eagerly awaited ratification of the Kyoto protocol must have been sorely disappointed. During his opening speech at the conference, President Putin didn't even give any indication of when parliament would discuss ratification. Russia, he said, would take a decision only on the basis of its national interests.
Shortly afterwards the president once again took the floor. He said that even among experts opinions differ on the seriousness of climate change. "Some say,' he jokingly remarked, "that an increase of two or three degrees wouldn't be so bad for a northern country like Russia. We could spend less on fur coats, and the grain harvest would go up.'
Ratification not imminent With this witticism, the Kremlin leader sent a clear message to the conference and to the rest of the world, says one of Russia's most prominent environmentalists, Aleksei Yablokov. Russia, he adds, is playing a political game with the Kyoto protocol, and ratification is therefore not very likely in the near future.
"I doubt, more than doubt, I am sure that in the immediate future, Russia will continue to play games with the Kyoto protocol. Russia tried to use the process of ratification of the Kyoto protocol for political profit. It's all been a political and economic game between the US and Russia, between the EU and Russia, and between China and Russia. And I doubt whether this game will end in the near future.'
Unclear objective Still, what goal Russia is pursuing by playing this game remains unclear. Only a year ago, at the Earth Summit in Johannesburg, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov promised before a delighted audience that Russia would ‘soon' ratify the Kyoto protocol. Environmentalists like Aleksei Yablokov say Europe is in part to blame for Russia's apparent policy change, because European countries do not cease to emphasise that ratification by Russia is crucial for the Kyoto agreement to succeed.
The treaty will only take force after states accounting for 55 percent of emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have ratified the pact. The Kremlin feels that the world needs Russia, that it has a trump card, which it may use to reap political or other benefits. Aleksei Yablokov cannot think of any other reason not to ratify the Kyoto protocol right now.
"There is no economic reason, because most analyses show that signing up will be slightly profitable for Russia. Not highly profitable, but we can earn say one billion dollars, maybe two billion dollars a year, if we trade off CO2 quota.'
Trading in emission rights Under the Kyoto agreement, countries must cut back their CO2 emissions to pre-1990 levels within ten years. But as a result of the economic crisis of the 1990s, Russian emissions are already significantly lower than that. As a result, Russia will have a surplus of CO2 rights, which it can sell to other countries whose emissions are higher than allowed. But of course, only after ratification.
According to Aleksei Yablokov, that may only be achieved if European countries stop begging Russia to ratify here and now. For Russia, he says, the main question should not be what it may gain from ratification, but what President Putin stands to lose in the world if Russia refrains from doing so.
