I think NO have a good chance of winning. Have to admit, thier track is the only one out of the list I've actually heard but that's beside the point. The awards don't go to who deserves it, but who ought to win. And the general feeling towards NO now, with many of todays hot bands citing them as an influence, the 24-Hour Party People movie, etc it's obvious that they should've had some recognition frikkin' AGES ago. So this is their chance to give them some token respect.
The reason they haven't so far is that the Academy has a really conservative concept of what constitutes 'musicianship' - it's about being the most popular and/or being able to do lots of noodle-y solos and hit super-high notes and other geeky displays of technical knowhow, things normal people can't do - eg Mariah Carey and 50 Cent being nominated for major awards. Or maybe it's not even that pre-meditated, it could be just members of the Academy thinking 'oh shit, I've got to get that ballot in today, hm let's see, I've heard of these guys, check, those guys are selling lots so they must be alright, check...'
The punk scene that JD/NO came from, the idea that it's not how you play, but what you play, flies in the face of everything the Academy stands for.
I honestly don't care if they win or not, though my bet for album of the year will go to Gwen Stefani, the perception is that it's 'her year'.